Price Time Volume Investing

The cycle on my roadmap hit this week and I assume a low will be made within a few days next week.  It is possible the low is already in, but a gap down on Monday will not worry me if price recovers quickly.  A continuation of last week’s price action would invalidate my call on this cycle turn.

Dynamic Chart

I posted a number charts over the last several days that I don’t want to duplicate.  Last week’s update still applies.  A recap of last weeks posts:

• Cycle Turns
• Market Internals at Rally Position
• How Long Did Panic of 1907 Last?
• Long Term SPX
• More On Deflation
• Prices Showing Serious Deflation
• DOW in the Long Term
• GOOG and AAPL Show Continued Weakness
• Gann Fans of the Bear Market Versus Today
• Long Term SPX and VLE
• SPX Hit 1×4 Gann Angle of 2002-2007 Range
• Gold In Weak Position

Tags:   Market Outlook · Roadmap · SP500No Comments.

The 10 day moving average of advance-decline lines are as oversold as I have seen them.  The TRIN and TRINQ are moving up showing indiscriminate selling.  And the McClellan oscillators are below -100.  In a normal situation, the market would need to rally from here.

As long as the governments around the world can get a grip on the banking problems I assume prices will move up from here.  The move should continue for several weeks.  But this may only be a dead cat bounce before more selling starts.

Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com

I wrote this post on Friday night and I’m off to the mountains and won’t be able to respond to any comments or emails until Sunday evening.

Have a good weekend. If you are looking for something to read this weekend you can check out my most popular posts page.

Tags:   Advance-Decline · Market Internals · McClellan IndexNo Comments.

Just a quick note on cycle turns.  Usually, price changes directions during a cycle turn.  Occasionally, price will accelerate to the downside.  It appears to me that the government has the opportunity to restore the system.  But this is the same President, Congress, SEC, Fed, and Treasury who have made idiotic move after idiotic move in the past year.  Please don’t get long just because it appears to be a cycle turn.

If the Dow 8000ish level does not hold, the next stop is the 1×4 Gann angle around 5000.

Post Modified: October 10th, 2008 at 3:38 pm

Tags:   Dow Jones Industrial Average · Gann Angle Fan · Market Cycles4 Comments