The SP500 Index (SPX) was stopped at the January high and the 12 month moving average. Volume continues to show a significant level of buyers between 666 and 900. Volume declined month over month in June, but was still higher than all but seven other months ever - pretty good for early summer.
The weekly charts show a lower volume pullback off the January high. Price dropped below the 50 day moving average (10 week on this chart). Volume was typically low around a holiday so not much can be read into Thursday’s price action. I do expect another pullback before the continuation of the move upward. Maybe the short term move down has begun.
The daily chart shows price below the 50dma and above the down sloping 200dma. Some have been discussing the head and shoulders pattern. This is possible but a bearish head and shoulders would have had the right shoulder begin below that of the left side. The more bullish Nasdaq does not show this pattern.
Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com
Tags: SP500
The chart of Natural Gas (NATGAS) shows price continuing down the 1×1 angle which is the inverse slope of the bull market of 2002-2005. Price “may” be in a bottoming process but there is no way of knowing for several months. I am not expecting any bullish runs in the price of natural gas any time soon based on this chart.
The chart of West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTIC) shows price moving up off the January low at the same slope at it moved during the final leg of the bull market from 2007-2009. The correction that began in early January dropped at four times the slope of either bull move on this chart. My assumption is that the trend of Light Crude is down.
The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) has dropped at four to eight times the slope of the 2002-2008 bull market. Price is below the 50% range level. I expect a test of the the 2009 low at a minimum.
Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com
Tags: Energy-Oil-Gas (XLE)
The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Square of Ninety shows price at the 4 points per day line. This square is draw with 360 points in 90 days. The 1/4 lines within the square can be used to find the 90 point levels from the March low. At the 90 day mark price had moved approximately 5 points per day.
The NDX daily swing chart is holding up quite well. As I noted in a couple previous posts, my guess is that price will break down towards the 1×2 angle to complete this short term A-B-C consolidation after a move of approximately 90 days. The 25% price line is a place to watch for support if a move down does occur within the next week or two.
Tags: Gann Square
