We finally got the follow through in price. Volume is questionable because of options expiration today and we need to watch it next week for more confirmation. I still don’t see this leg going beyond 1440 before another correction or basing activity. The 5 year cycle, which has been good to us for the past few months, provides another cycle inflection point in mid-June. This could be the final end of this move up or just a consolidation into early July. From July on I expect weakness in price until October.
My Current Roadmap Guess
We have finished wave “A” from the October top. The market will rally into June (wave “B”) before a final move down into October (wave “C”). If this wave “B” has only 3 waves (two up) then I cannot see a rally into mid/late June. It seems logical to make a move of that duration, and considering we may be in the second wave already, we will need five waves to take us into June. I am very bearish from the end of this move into the September/October timeframe.
The SPX charts linked to the right show the roadmap and charts of other time frames.
The Gann Emblem which is a linear representation of the Gann Wheel shows that price had an echo vibration off the October top after one-half of a year. Gann degrees in time are very simple in that a degree is a day. So 180 degrees is 180 days. The Gann Wheel is actually the circle of one year.
As always, I could be completely wrong…
Post Modified: April 20th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Tags: Gann Emblem · Market Cycles · Market Outlook · Roadmap · Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P500)1 Comment
1 response so far ↓
I am also expecting a major peak on June4th, and from there quite negative through mid July to start, and Spt 9th looks like a good resting stop.
oct10 to mar10 looks like 5 waves and if such an interveneing rally as we are in now thru June4th, as yu say should take the form of 3 waves. If friday April 18th topped wave”a” then “b” is next.
Theres more at my blog, and I have yet to update today.
Jay