Price Time Volume Investing

The setups of these three market leaders support my guess of another leg down into October followed by another bull market. Keep in mind that these “guesses” are based on price-time-volume characteristics that I have seen many times. But they are still only “guesses” and I could be completely wrong. I will follow this into the fall to gauge the overall market based on the actual movements of these leaders.

Apple (AAPL) began a move along with the market in 2006. The exact counting of five waves is debatable (and unimportant to me), but there were five waves before the December correction. The correction move was abrupt and was accompanied by a lot of selling volume. A low occurred in late February and price has been moving up on lower volume since. Last week marked 25% of the time of the up move. This is a time to watch for a rollover. Price and volume do not support the continuation of his move to a new high. The 50% retrace time will occur around October. If price retests the low and forms a “W” bottom then AAPL will be in great shape to move higher next fall.

Research in Motion (RIMM) situation is almost identical to AAPL with the 25% time retrace ending this week. A new high could be made here but I expect that one to fail - at least on the first attempt to remain above the October high.

Google’s (GOOG) chart is similar to the previous two but also somewhat different. GOOG broke out in Jun07 after working off the Aug05-Dec06 rise in exactly the same amount of time the original move required. In October, price declined with the total market and hit a retrace to the breakout price at 50% of the time range (Feb08). I believe GOOG will make a double bottom “W” also. I am watching the 1:1 ascending Gann Angle of the lower Range Square which is around 375 today.

Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com

Tags:   AAPL · Breakout · Double Bottom · Gann Fan · GOOG · RIMM · Square of Range · Square Out · VolumeNo Comments