A number of Gannish analysts I’ve read/heard recently are pointing to the SP500 Index (SPX) moving to 1360 or even 1350 before a move higher. The consensus I am hearing is 1500 this summer. This roughly fits with my analysis. I expected 1376 to be the low but I don’t have a problem with a lower price. Short term moves are the most difficult for me to make and the ones I dislike the most. I rarely put any money on a short term call - unless it is part of my longer term call.
Looking at a couple of SPX ranges, I see 1350-60 makes sense. The March to May range has a 50% retrace at 1350. The 2:1 Gann Angle is around 1360. This is a logical move.
The Oct05-Oct07 range has the 2:1 Gann Angle from the March low at 1350ish. Again, this is a logical place to start a move higher.
Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com
Post Modified: July 3rd, 2008 at 12:33 am
Tags: Gann Angle Fan · Square of Range · Standard and Poor's 500 (SP500)9 Comments
9 responses so far ↓
Andy,
why don’t we just ignore the rest and now sail to 150 :), by midjune 
I like your views better…
Making short term calls in this market is asking for too much.
Earlier you were saying market topping at 1440 by mid june. Have you now changed that to 1500 ? That is a big movement isn’t it ?
After watching your charts/posts closely for some time it seems like there is no way to make short term money through gann charts. Like right now you can bet on market going higher or not bet at all.
it almost seems more like a general idea of direction.
I bougth some May qqqq 44 calls, only to sell them way too early (got shaken out, still, at a profit, but still), lots of trading that gave me the same returns as holding on to the calls would have….
I think the one thing that makes it the ‘hardest’ to me is that a lot of it depend on where you place the lines, that is the subjective part…
Andy, it looks like your 50:50 crossover is going to happen after all
Kurt - Short term works well with Gann. But I don’t watch the short term charts. I therefore should not ever make short term calls.
Watching the interday 60 or 10 minute charts takes too much effort - and time I do not have. But that does not mean it does not work. If I was a professional trader then I would spend more time on the 60 minute charts.
TK - Keep in mind that time is more important than price. I said price would hit 1440 by mid-June. It did, but there was plenty of time left. Price can’t roll over until time is up. In this case price regrouped and is making a run at the next higher price levels - near 1500. It could have regrouped and stayed a few percent lower before rolling over.
The movement from 1440 to 1500 is only a 4% gain. This is why I cannot tell anyone how to handle their money. Is a 4% gain worth the downside risk to you? I do not know that? I only know my own risk/reward tolerances.
Note - in the previous comment I made the assumption that price is going to go above 1440. That could be completely wrong and stall below 1440. In that case, it would have been better to get out at 1440 in May and wait for the rollover in cash. Even though we know when the alarm will sound, it doesn’t make the game easy.
ok. spx closed at 1360. - as you said… I can’t believe it
If it bounces back from here, you are a genius.
based on what I have ‘experienced’ with Andy, I already think he is a genius…
he said that 1440, which likely would be rejected…voila, that happened, now, i’d love to see a run-up now into july (well, i’d be fine if the run-up ended on June 20th), a 7% up would get us to 1450…10% to 1500…
i’ll take 1440-50 :)….
i think we are oversold, way oversold, and should have at least a bounce
[...] week I mentioned that a number of other Gannish analysts were pointing to SPX 1350-60 as a low. It turns out they were correct and time was on their side. [...]