The SPX is currently at the 1:1 ascending angle of the range of the second five wave formation off the 2002 low. (See the first SPX chart for the major wave breakdown.) This second formation started in 2005. I see the market in an A-B-C retrace from this formation. My current assessment is that we are finishing wave “b” of the larger “B” - with one final up thrust “c” before a move down into October.
The cycles all appear up to me but price is not moving up. This could be an over-balance (like a rubber band being pulled back).
Post Modified: July 2nd, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Tags: Gann Angle Fan · Market Cycles · Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P500)6 Comments
6 responses so far ↓
Do you have a projected end point for wave c of B and a projected start and end point for wave C?
Fred - good question. The a wave was 184 points. Assuming the c wave is equal then 1488 is the move from 1304.
OK, so you expect the SPX to violate the 1:1 descending. At what point in time does the c move end and also the C move. If I’m understanding this correctly you expec the SPX to move to 1488 and then all the way to below the March lows all before end of October? Seems volatile plus.
Fred,
I think Andy will never tell you it is going to stop here, go there, etc. It would be really nice if the next move up also takes us up 180 points, but chances are that it won’t be that much (but i’ll take it any time, especially by July).
Fred - as Kurt said, I don’t know where it is going. I have thought for a while it would go back to 1450 based on my analysis. I would not be surprised to see it die at 1400 though - as weak as the market is. The only charts that look good are energy and some commodities. Energy could break up but everyone is looking for that. I don’t know what will hold the market up with all the weak charts.
Fred - Part II. After the top, small “c” and big “B”, I do expect a big “C” down into October. The price I’ve looked at for months is 1230-1250. But 1160 continues to show up on my charts. Will a new low be made at the end of “C? I hope so to remove the bulls. But my method is to make the best guess I can based on the most recent data and act according. When price goes against my plan, I am the first to change. Plans always change - in every part of life. The people who fail are the ones who cannot adapt to new data.