The daily swing chart shows that the SP500 Index (SPX) is in bad shape. The weekly swing is in just as bad shape, but the monthly swing is in position to turn up in July. The market is constantly making lower lows with retraces of only a few days.
The NDX swings look much better on the daily/weekly/monthly charts. Premium content subscribers can follow the SPX and NDX daily/weekly/monthly chart updates each week.
Until we have a sustained thrust higher that retraces to a higher low in fewer days than the up-thrust we will be in a down trend. When will that happen? One possibility is found on the long term SPX Roadmap.
Note how the move from the March low is at 109 days. This is one-half of the 218 estimated for the complete move. I expected a high to occur last week. It is possible I had the cycle correct and the direction wrong when I made this guess in March. Assuming we have hit the low, (a big assumption that may turn out wrong early next week), price could move to 1450 around August 22nd. This could be followed by the move down into October.
As always, this is my best guess and I could be complete wrong…
Post Modified: July 8th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Tags: Market Outlook · Nasdaq Charts · Roadmap · Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P500) · Swing ChartsNo Comments
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