The SP500 Index (SPX) 5 year cycle has given us some significant turning points for the year.
- The July 2002 low led to the July 2007 high
- The October 2002 low led to the secondary 2007 high
- The March 2003 low led to the March 2008 low
The August 2003 consolidation low brings us to the current point in August 2008. It will be interesting to see which way the market moves on this five year cycle.
Tags: Market Cycles · SP5002 Comments
2 responses so far ↓
Andy, what do you think about the Olympic theory I have, lets say, the chinese just turned the spouts off to clear the air so Michael Phelps and the rest of the athletes, tourists could breath for 2 weeks. As soon as the games are over, the spout gets turned back on, and oil, gas go up again, into a triangle(decending), sort of what the s&p looks like right now(acending), This would take us to your Mid august turn. Somewhere in the 20-25th range, it would take the chinese about a week to put the faucet back on wide open, and use the extra energy ,by labor day oil and gas is climbing and the S&P/Dow make their final 5th wave down to end wave one, or we start a c wave of 2 down in wave 2 up, or its an ending diagonal triangle of a 2 and we staryt the larger degree 3rd wave down?????
Libby - it is possible the increased energy use will raise the price of oil in the future months. I tend to think not because the market discounts this and has figured this all into trading. I think all the commodities went parabolic and won’t recover for months/years. That does not mean that one cannot make a lot of money trading the bounces.
–
As for the total market — I would like to see a retest of the July lows in October. Price may or may not go lower. My assumption is that a new bull market will be in progress by November. If I am wrong then the markets are in serious long term trouble.