The SP500 Index (SPX) made five waves from the October high to the March low. My guess has been that we have been in an a-b-c correction the will eventually move down into October. The question now is how high do we go before starting back down again? I would not be surprised to see the “c” wave take out the 1440 high up to 1450. But that certainly isn’t a good time to become over bullish. It also would not surprise me to see this wave end around August 22nd much lower than 1450.
The second question for more serious e-wavers than I am is what type of correction can we get into October/November that allows a bull market to take off from that point?
Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com
Tags: A-B-C Correction · Elliott Wave Analysis · Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P500)6 Comments
6 responses so far ↓
I have made money on your call. Sold all my longs and will wait for Aug 22 to see my qid green.
Thanks
Robert
i think ur making a mistake here nothing to bullish the wave down is about to start max it can reach is 1320 odd
Robert - I very glad it is working out for you. Hope your good fortune continues.
Leo - you may be right. E-wave wise it does not look very good… as Libby has pointed out a couple times. But cycle wise I see a low in October and I try to see if it is possible that the waves will work out that way. At this point the e-waves could look better with an October low. Still, the cycle I see could invert and October becomes a high or an acceleration point down.
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The thing about being “wrong” is that you are only wrong until you see you are wrong… and then you are “right”…
October wiill be the low(much lower) but that will be yearly low. will rally,double top re-test the lows,find support and will make a very nice rally that will fool MANY and then plunge blowing through the Oct )08 lows. We begin this process Monday-watch Vix, Credit Spreads. Wamu’s days are probably numbered and we become the proud owner’s of Fannie and Freddie.
Mike - you may be right on the market outcome. Time will tell. As for financial stocks like FNM/FRE/WM, I’m pretty sure that is all in the system already. Many banks may fail but it won’t be a surprise anymore. It may hold the big indices back but the average stock can still rally.
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As for tax payers becoming the owners of FNM/FRE… we already are. The debt is debt to the tax payers. We loaned ourselves a lot of money. If we bail out FNM/FRE, we bail out ourselves. It is really a non-issue except to accountants. No one is getting rich off the financials as a business. That is the beauty of a fiat currency system. We (the US) don’t have to be great (or even good). We only have to be better than most of the rest of the world. Money is paper. The underlying system determines what the paper is worth. Just have a better system and we win… no matter how our system grades out on an absolute scale…. I believe Einstein called this the theory of relativity…