Not really much to discuss at this point.
- The cycle from October to March completed on Friday.
- The swing chart of the Nasdaq is in position move higher, but it must do so right now
- The internals have backed off from slightly overbought to slightly oversold now.
It is now or never for this move. Because the 75% line of the cycle produced the low, it is my opinion that this cycle is significant. The price action next week will decide whether the market moves up or down now that 100% of the cycle is complete.
The swing chart never retraced below the 6 and 12 day highs of the initial thrust. The current correction was four days which is the most that a bullish market will give up. The high before the recent move down must be exceeded early next week. Otherwise, the bull move is mostly likely complete and the move down into October has begun.
Tags: Market Internals · Market Outlook · Nasdaq Charts · Price Retrace · Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P500) · Swing Charts · Volume4 Comments
4 responses so far ↓
Andy,
this would suggest a 60 point rise in the nasdaq, or close to 3% (or 4% from where we are now, somehow I doubt it will happen, then again, I have been way wrong before…..)
lets get the slide into october rolling, and hopefully that will be it (and you will hit the targets again…)….
We go lower from here-I see an overshoot to 7200(dow) as Very real. 10,000 is a done deal. After Oct we rally until summer ‘09 (looks like aug) and then Deja’Vu all or again breaking the Oct ‘08 lows. On a side note-I trade options (currently I have Dia Oct 10,000 puts) Andy-do you have any experience or 2nd hand knowledge of DXD (Dow double short) of S$P double short OPTION performce in relation to Options on Dia or SPY? Anyone is welcome to respond. Andy,thanks again for your work and dedication. Mike
Kurt - 4% (or 10%) on the Nasdaq isn’t really that much. It can move that range in a couple of good (or bad) days.
Mike - I see 1170ish on the SPX. The DOW 10690 is 50% retrace of the 2002-2007 range and should provide good support.