Price Time Volume Investing

Volume was lower today and price retraced 50% of yesterday’s move which is not bullish. The put/call and VIX is still up but I don’t think we have seen the low. Continue reading

The 1987-2000 range of the SPX shows the 50% end retrace line about 20% below today’s close at 883. This will be a retest of the 2002 lows. Continue reading

The VLE is testing the July low which could hold. But the odds are against it. Continue reading

I posted the charts of two strong looking stocks at the end of July. I noticed that both remain is a strong position. One stock is a home builder and the other is a technology stock. Continue reading

Here is an oddity - the charts of regional banks are really looking strong. In looking at my industry charts I was surprised to see such relative strength in the banks. Continue reading

A summary of current market action and a guess into future market actions. Continue reading

As an extension of my post this morning, here is where the SP500 Index (SPX) could end up in a crash in the 25-30% range. Continue reading

Jim Cramer did some analysis of individual stocks within the Dow Jones Industrial Average and sees the Dow at 8378 when the downside is complete. He is not making exact technical call on this number, but only a composite guess based on estimates of individual prices within the DOW. I decided to look at my charts and see if this level is realistic. Continue reading

I got home last night and looked through the charts. There really isn’t anything to discuss that hasn’t been covered. We are waiting for congress to decide what to do. Continue reading

The Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) shows no signs of a global recession with price well above the 1:1 descending Gann angle (diagonal). Continue reading

The price volatility as measured by the average true range (ATR) of the Nasdaq Composite index is at a long term high. This has always led to higher prices. Continue reading

The US Dollar (USD) began a long drop in 2001 after a big run up. Using that slope at the low in March shows the 1:1 Gann angle near $73 which is a 75% retrace of the short term move. Continue reading

Ignoring all the extracurricular activity, price has bounced off the 50 day moving average as expected in the SPX and COMPQ. Volume is suspect, but lower on the pullback. Continue reading

As an update to a post last week on gold, price remains at the 1:2 Gann angle but looks strong in the short term. Continue reading

The Value Line Arithmetic (VLE) is my main index to watch the total market. The intermediate term range from 2007-2008 shows the 1:2 angle as resistance. Today price bounced off that line again. Continue reading

Today was a lower volume down day. But since shorting has been significantly reduced, who knows what the volume means? Price is the only thing that matters at this point. The low of last week is the swing low to watch. Price can move down to the July low and I expect weakness into October. But this is not time to get brave. The bottom could fall out on the October 10th. Continue reading

I have mention here that the fact that the smallcaps were holding up well was a sign that these businesses were not having trouble receiving loans. Small companies do not have large cash reserves and need to finance growth. Continue reading

There is not much to discuss this weekend. The financial system was saved by the US government. Paulson let it go all the way to the edge so he would be able to scare congress into acting. It is still unclear if congress is smart enough to do the right thing, but Paulson knows what he is doing. Continue reading

Chapter IX, around page 115, in my copy of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LeFevre is a good place to read about what happened in the past week or so. I recommend this book to anyone interested in trading or in the financial history of the USA. Continue reading

The SP500 Index ended this quiet week right where it started. Not much to say… Continue reading