It has been about a month since we looked at Apple (AAPL) so let’s look at an update. My previous guess was the AAPL was in a down trend until the 50/50 point on the intermediate term chart. September 21st is 50% of the time cycle and price is setup well at this time.
Price could drop down to the 126ish level and remain in good shape. Or price could stay were it is and be in even better shape with a deep cup with handle.
The long term chart shows price under the 1:1 Gann angle but above the 1:2 angle. Price at this point is not bullish in that it is below the 1:1 angle. But price is close enough to break through this angle and move to a position of strength quickly.
Tags: AAPL · Gann Angle Fan8 Comments
8 responses so far ↓
Andy, what timing, I was going to ask you about apple and the market in general.
You have said that you think apple would hit bottom around the 20th of September, which is 2 weeks from now (less actually, but that is semantics). But you also think that the market will roll over into october. I guess apple could base around here, to rise after october earnings, but what would the chances of that be if the market indeed does roll over and keep falling into october?
apple has had the strength before of moving against the market, i.e. rising strongly (on strong fundamentals) even if the market was flat to down…do you think that could happen again?
Kurt - the low could be in September but price will base until October. Usually the best stocks will begin to move up before the total market. I use my 100 Best Stocks list during the final phase of a selloff to see when the buying of the best stocks begins. Price could drop another 10% from that point, but it is a signal that the low is near.
I guess my worry is about the market in general. It is doing really bad right now, at the same time, it is doing so bad that one could think that we have reached capitulation or will do so soon. Opec wont be successful in keeping oil prices high, especially as demand destruction is taking place…this will result in lowering inflation in general, and the consumer will all of the sudden have more money available to buy things, increasing consumer confidence…
i’d think that with oil at 100 bucks, we will start seeing gas at around 3 -3.20 in the next couple of weeks, which could also lead to the ‘bottom’ of the market?
Kurt - If you look at the BKX you will see that the banks are doing just fine … no matter what the news is… the market always moves with the banks …
banks are doing amazingly well, you are right…apple just broke and bounced from its april and july low, and these last couple of days have had very strong volume (compared to august)….now, I am hoping this will last and that the stock will start moving up into october….
Andy…
if we take the drop of apple from 203 to 115 as A, the rise to 192 as B (low volume rise), and then the drop now (so far, hopefully this will be it) as C, could we say that an ABC correction was completed (or is in process of completing?)
Kurt - A-B-C. Yes but we always have to watch what happens after “C”. And we are not sure “C” is complete so that isn’t a great trade on the a-b-c alone. Volume was weaker today than on the down days so I am not encouraged. Barry Ritholz ripped the iPhone yesterday saying it was a cool toy but the phone sucked. I never used one so I can’t say.
gotcha on the C being complete…I know… i am hoping/thinking that it is, especially as we went below the July low and bounced back on relative high volume (not as high as yesterday, but still higher than average in the last 2 months…)….
its time for apple to start its end of year rally!…