Short term the market swing chart is not is great position. I continue to expect (or will not be surprised) by a move to SP500 Index (SPX) 1150. But the situation this fall looks much better. Using the Value Line Arithmetic Index (VLE) as the state of the total market we can see that price and time are in a favor.
The following charts are dynamic and should be viewed with respect to the current date in the future.
The 2002-2007 Gann Fan shows price bounced off the 1:2 angle and is at the 1:1 descending angle. Price also did not break the top of the first 5 wave formation which is bullish for future price movement.
The 2005-2007 range square has price also at the 1:1 descending Gann angle. This isn’t bullish, but with all the “problems” in the system, I would expect price to be below this angle.
The 2007-2008 range square has price well above the 1:1 ascending Gann angle.
The move since August has not closed below the 50% price retrace of the bounce from July.
Recap of last week’s posts:
- Transports Hold Up Well
- Russell 2000 In Strong Long Term Position
- Double Bottom Accumulation Day on SPX
- RIMM Correction Complete?
- God Bless America
- Buyers Remain Uninterested
- Bank Index (BKX) Holding Up Well
- Possible September Low?
- Apple Computer (AAPL) Analysis Update
- Mixed High Volume Day
- Always Look on the Bright Side of Life
Post Modified: September 13th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Tags: Elliott Wave Analysis · Market Outlook · Price Retrace · Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P500) · Value Line Arithmetic Index (VLE)4 Comments
4 responses so far ↓
(**SIGH**) Crash. Not cause and effect,Effect and cause. Looking forward to all that yummy money all the bulls and cramer/paulson kool-aid drinkers apparently don’t need. What with Bryn Mawr for the kids and leaving the country before the depression is obvious to the flouride drinkers- ‘gonna need some sugar daddies and easy marks.
Well, isn’t wall street grand, Lehman files for bankruptcy, Merrill sells to Bank of america, and the tax payers will pay it all. Mike gotta agree with you on the Greatest Depression the U.S. has ever seen. Get your $ out of the banks, they are on there way down!…….UUUUUGGGG, Oh I forgot, it won’t be worth a dime, take a wheel barrel full to buy a loaf of bread…..(:
and the VIX hits 30!…. we are oversold, but also overscared!
Kurt - Over scared goes hand-n-hand with oversold. If the market is not scared then it isn’t really oversold…