Reader Kurt asked about a comparison of the 2000-2002 bear market to the current market environment. I looked at this a few different ways and decided the best way to do it is to compare the 2000 bear market at 12 months to the current drop after one year. The current bear market started in October of 2007.
The Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) is currently above the final slope of the 2000 bear market (1×1 Gann angle). Price in 2003 (one year after bear market started) was at the 2×1 slope. This shows that although the Nasdaq has been hit hard recently, the slope of the move is not near that of the 2000 bear market.
The SP500 Index (SPX) price in 2003 had a big spike down almost to the 2×1 angle. The current price movement is somewhat weaker but above the 2×1 angle.
The Dow Jones Index (INDU) price also spiked down to the 2×1 Gann angle in 2003 and is in a similar position now.
To me, the current bear is either about the same magnitude of the 2003 move or somewhat less powerful (depending on which market we discuss). The duration of the 2000-2002 bear market was on the long side of bear market lengths. This current bear market may last that long or end much sooner. Typically, markets alternate between short moves and long moves. But not much can be predicted about the duration of the total bear market at this point.
Tags: Dow Jones Industrial Average · Nasdaq Charts · Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P500)4 Comments
4 responses so far ↓
How do u do Spiral Calendar stuff? you have some software?
TObject - I’m not sure what you mean by spiral calendar. If you mean the charts in this post then I use Gannalyst which is free from http://www.Gannalyst.com .
no I mean timing
http://ptv-investing.com/Pix/spx_waves_ptv-investing.gif
it looks like Spiral from “Spiral Calendar” book
Gannalyst again. There are time and price tools that provide what I needed. Great program for free. You can get free data using this http://www.amichel.com/ydownloader/