Just a quick note on cycle turns. Usually, price changes directions during a cycle turn. Occasionally, price will accelerate to the downside. It appears to me that the government has the opportunity to restore the system. But this is the same President, Congress, SEC, Fed, and Treasury who have made idiotic move after idiotic move in the past year. Please don’t get long just because it appears to be a cycle turn.
If the Dow 8000ish level does not hold, the next stop is the 1×4 Gann angle around 5000.
Post Modified: October 10th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Tags: Dow Jones Industrial Average · Gann Angle Fan · Market Cycles8 Comments
8 responses so far ↓
Only bought 10% of what I had in the market over the last year. I am waiting for the turn. Thanks for all the great work.
Robert
Meltdown 2008 poster
http://forkoholic.com/images/SPXMeltdown2008.jpg
I looked quickly at some tech stocks and qqqq 15 minute charts and none have broken through the down-trendline yet. I will spend some more time this weekend and share my thoughts here.
I also looked at my spreadsheet moving averagres of Advancers/Decliners (issues & volume) on Nasdaq and most the divergences I saw around September ~18th are gone. My experimental market bottom indicator now points to Oct 13th-14th as some sort of bottom.
regards,
Ray N
The one thing I never got into was Elliot Waves. Anyone please want point me to a best book or document? I only know the very very basics.
Based on above I do have a question? Would the down-Wave from 2000-2002 be the A wave of the correction, and B concluded last October 07, and now we are in wave C final correction phase? Thx
Can we even go to 5500 based on your long term?
http://ptv-investing.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/dow-1942-2008.gif
rayN, check
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/default.aspx
Ray, I just completed a VERY DEPRESSING article on Elliott Wave implications that might speak to your question.
http://www.chribstrades.com/2008/10/elliott-wave-implications.html
also this is an article I dug up that goes over Elliott Wave counts from 10,000 BC. We mainly use EWave to measure greed and fear, human psychology etc in a market context. But its scope can be broadened to measure humanity as a whole.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/mbutler120299d.html
Ray - Try Prechter ’s book as it is the best I’ve found to cover all you need. As for the counts, everybody’s got one. I don’t spend a lot of time with them but others are very good with them. My rule is to look for the simple count. If there isn’t a simple count then I give up. I don’t like multiple alternatives because I know there are multiple alternatives - I want to know which one will be the correct one.
TObject - 5000′ish is a valid leave for price to hit.