The SPX has a definite time cycle going on since the March low. Today is 242 days from that low (2/3 of 365 days). Other cycles shown that have ended or will end this week — 180, 120, 90, and 30 day cycles. With all these cycles hitting this week, a low is a real possibility.
The chart below has another view of these cycles. The range of May to October has the 25% cycle hitting this week also.
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Tags: Market Cycles15 Comments
andy
im confused
you say a low is a real possibility–does that mean yesterday’s low is likely an IT BOTTOM sort of low, or did you mean we could end up even LOWER today because of the convergence of all these cycles ending today?
please clarify what you mean when you say a “low”
thanks
almost44 – The market can do what it wants. I can’t control it. I use geometries and patterns to give “my” assessment of the probabilities it will do. Sometimes I say I don’t know. Currently, I don’t know. Yesterday was a great day. But if price does not follow through above the October 14th high by next Friday, my guess will be that the upside is limited. From this consolidation formation, if we don’t go up, I assume we go down. My charts say down could be at least 18% – maybe much more.
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Just to be clear – if I say I think the market will go… say “up”. If you bet your house that it will go up, then there is some probability that you will be living in the streets.
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My assessment, or anyone’s assessment, should be used in conjunction with your own assessment. Everyone is wrong at times. There have been billions/trillions lost by hedge fund managers that probably had a genius IQ. No one “knows”. Everyone “guesses”. That is the nature of markets and traders/investors.
andy
thanks for the clarification — i am going to go bet my house on your call now.
Just kidding – I simply like to understand what I am reading–even if it makes me look stupid–I feel a lot more stupid if I don’t ask
thanks again for all the insights and info
Andy/Libby others: I am checking out the energy ETFs since many have been saying that oil bottomed etc. What I see on their HLC chart is triangle consolidation with a few days left before wave E wave hits top triangle line. On the other hand when one looks at only price close (line) chart they all look like Reverse H&S formations. Please tell me your thoughts on this if you have the time. Thx
oh and ETFs I looked at are: IGE, DVE, XLE .. and I see solar sector stocks sort of tracing these ETFs.
FSLR (Cramer’s favorite talking stock) on 60 minute chart looks like Reverse H&S.
Hi All, its a beautiful rainy morning here and I don’t know why I always do this when I get home but I always check where the futures end or what they are doing….if you all notice the futures where down big time after hours. mini dow -459, mini s&p down 47.25 and naz, was down 79. Now that is a whopper of a close, for the futures, so that really leads me to believe that we are out of the triangle big time, and that we are not going UP…. I have several scenerios running thru my tired mind but I will commment on them later today, need to sleep first….just food for thought http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html Andy don’t know if you have ever read this before….very interesting stuff, I think I tried to paste it the other day, but that might have been Krugman, noble prize winner economics, that I wanted you to read and Princeton has shut down their website to the public, funny it just happend too….not sure if there are any other links…Princeton publish’s alot of stuff that I read ….OK..have a great day everyone enjoy the snow/rain….
Oh and Andy, notice the chart that he published,, the year 2011.45…..I was excited about that ,,,,it’s the same as what I told you I had….so if you follow the chart …Andy/Fork…notice possible bottom…2008.225 then up to 2009.3, well, we have already exceeeded 2008.225…so the chart is off a bit in my opinon….but just interesting….
http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S22/39/37M93/index.xml?section=featured
once you get started it’s hard to go to bed.
Fred, I have been going over all of your picks, and remember this is just my opinion, but All I see is downside, and a strong move to the downside at that, now It would never underestimate the power of Hank Paulson, and Mr. Bernanke, they would (I think) like this to be the bottom, but I just can’t find anything (+) in the dow or s&p.
I do see a wonderful possible move in EEV….this one could be worth alot, I also monitor the AG’s being the ol farm girl, gotta watch the pork bellies, but POT looks great, so with that I have to imagine that Crude is possibly going up, but not for sure, I have to find a crude chart….mine are down right now….so anyone else have an opinion on anything I like….give it….my choices the other day, well, they went to the way side fast…. OK I am done now….later
The DOW triangle still valid too just the lower line moved down a bit. The uppper line should be hit this coming week with wave E.
Interesting to see what happens there as many indicators do signal some sort of bottom (market internals have been trending up on each touch of bottom since 10/10/08, Strong reversal date on 11/13, etc.) .. however I still see many Elliot Wave followers saying that wave E to upper triangle line will complete wave 4 of 3. Wave 5 down would be next into new lows as Fork has it too.
GOOG and others are now having the broken lower triangle lines acting as resistance.
Mamis says in one of his books that a phenomena that keeps happening often is that in many instances triangles get broken to one side sharply and then turn around an go the other way. Just as what happened in markets on 11/13.
To be honest I have no clear mid-term direction or conviction yet however I am playing on long side for short term. Fork’s dates of 19th, 20th, or 21st might be the start of wave 5 of 3 down.
my 2 cents.
Libby, I read your lifestory and I have to say we have lot in common. For me that period during bubble burst my father also passed away and my mind was paralized in grief for a while. I had sold good company stocks that I accumulated for 5 years to buy the crummy “new paradigm” stocks, you know the story from there. I drive a 1992 honda civic and it’s running smooth still with nice AC, but I keep my wife and kids (4 and 1) in a new much bigger vehicle.
I wish GM ever learned what good value is I bet they would not be in this mess right now. When I rent one of their little cars (a GM or Dodge, etc.) they are so bad that I would tell myself I would not trade my 92 honda civic for any of these. Last time this happened was 3 years ago with a Dodge Neon.
Hey everyone sorry about my rant on GM and Chrysler/Dodge. I should keep them for other boards. I gotta go back watch ASU football, as poor as we are this season we are playing someone as bad as us today. have good weekend.
OK, I could not get away for long not even with football and beer.
Andy/Libby, I reviewed all the market’s internals and if that is the language the market’s speak then they are telling me that the bottom is in. $NAAD $NAUD $NAHL all made higher highs while markets touched the lows since OCT 10th. I used mostly the 10DMA but looked quickly at 13 and 30 and same message. The same shows up on NYSE.
Something of interest. The $COMPQ in 1998 went down to 1500-ish around September/October;; the $NAHL back then touched same level as it did in 2008 around -800. Check it out.
Maybe the market will go lower yet while all the stuff above keeps on diverging.
meant to say “higher lows”
sorry rayN,
dates for 19th-21st are not mine – Tim Bost’s and McHugh’s – I’m just the messanger
I have not found those on my triangle but I have 25th and possibly December date – I can’t see because my software does not project into the future
http://forkoholic.com/images/spxtri111408b.jpg
rayN, I think u may like this chart
http://forkoholic.com/images/EconomyDied.jpg