The ten year bond yield is at levels from the early 1960s. Price essentially followed the slope down that it followed up from the sixties into the early 1980s. Yield bottomed in 2003 and is near that level today. I read the gurus squawking all the time about inflation. But the world continues to buy US bonds below a 5% yield. They also tell me about the flight to safety one day - while the next day tell me how the whole financial system is going down the drain. Kinda tough to have safety without a financial system - eh? Gurus crack me up.
The move from 1981 to 2003 has a 25% time cycle coming up next month. Even if the current low yield is all about a safe place to store wealth, the bull market from 2002-2007 only increased yield to around 5.3% at its peak. The near collaspe of the US financial system only took yields down to the level of a normal recession in 2002. I do believe the short term moves are related to current financial instability. But the long term charts show that the deleverage activity has only moved bonds down to 2002 levels.
Tags: Bonds · Financials · Inflation-Deflation4 Comments
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Morning everyone!…Just think we are only a day away from Forks McHugh’ s Phi #….You know Art Cashin has been waiting for this Capitulation Day for over a month now, and I think he’s about to get it over the next few days. Now I have been sneeking around the blog lands this morning, trying to sniff out what the other traders are feeling, very interesting stuff. They are as confused as we are!!!! Yea Us Yea Us…..
Oh before I forget, Fred, every now and then I forget to update my theories for you, and the triangle was done a few days ago, I am sorry I forgot to update, we busted that bottom support, and we are in the final 5th wave of wave 3, and in the 5th wave we are I think going to start Wave 3 of wave 5, and we should get the Capitulation that Art Cashin wants.I am looking for S&P 765 and still looking for the 7200 on Dow. I do think this will move fast….my trading sucks right now because I have to sleep, where I should be right now….boring….Oh Andy, by the cat another fish….their cheap toys ….and make it Gold….speaking of its time to really check out the Precious metal’s,,,,as soon as this baby finishes I think precious metals, and cat treats will go up….and ag products,,,funny cat treats are ag products.. Oh and Fred/Andy, there is that probability that we finished wave 5 of 3 and we are in a larger degree wave 4 of wave A , and if that is the case, we will go up for I figure thanksgiving….I’m sticking to my first scenerio. OK, gotta get to sleep…enjoy FSLR FRED….thats the Green trade when the new Pres, gets in Office….
OH…Andy …you own a blackberry….Wow…. I have to take back my words I said a few weeks or so ago about you need a blackberry,,, you probably laughed at that….
OK….confirmed wave 3 of 5….now for the targets…ouch…688 on S&p …6000 on dow….wave 1 of 5 was 319pts long…wave 5’s can be same….some crude #’s for now….gotta go to work…
Yes, Libby. Got a Blackberry with some nice gains from the March cycle turn. Sponsored a T-Ball team too. All that money is gone now. I need a bailout…
market internals for all broke their trendlines today. More new lows for first time too. So that goes out the window. For a non-technical indicator I am just guessing that markets have not accounted for Big 3 Auto makers going under.
Market could still turn up tomorrow as that reversal day that Fork had mentioned earlier. In that case today would be seen as big Shake out day before the next rally (I call it BEAR until proven otherwise) Andy keeps it in question mark? as a possible new Bull? or do you still Andy?
Some stocks that could be leaders of tomorrow held up pretty good today. Cannot mention any names for fear of someone buying them and then hating me later.
Best wishes to all here