The week ended with on a five day rally. Volume trailed off all week which is expected around the Thanksgiving holiday. Volume should be relatively light the remainder of the year (based on history).
The market remains oversold after a five day rally which is a good sign for additional upside. The push down in price at the end of October into November was not reflected in the Advance-Decline statistics (price made a lower low while the oscillator did not). This is a positive divergence.
The 10 year Treasury has a 12 month cycle within a three year cycle. Yield broke to a new low in November signaling the market expects deflationary pressures for the next several years. I have never traded bonds, but I cannot imagine the big boyz jumping in for a momentum ride of a few weeks or months. The 1/3 time cycle is 12 months. There remains seven more months before the next cycle hits.
The percent of Nasdaq stocks with a bullish point and figure chart did not make a new low along with price.
Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com
The Value Line Arithmetic Elliott Wave chart shows that wave 5 may be complete. But until wave 4 is exceeded, that is just a guess.
Recap of recent posts:
- Coal – JRCC Chart is Bouncing
- Natural Gas Working Toward Cycle Point
- Copper and West Texas Intermediate Crude
- SPX 1987 Bottom Was 45 Days
- SPX at 45 Days from Cycle Turn
- Low Volume – Same Ole Pattern
- Traditional Gann Fan Observation
- Weekend Outlook – 22Nov08
- Expiration Day Reversal
- Dow, Nasdaq, VLE, and SPXEW Above 2002 Lows
Previous Weekend Outlook posts.
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Tags: Bonds · Elliott Wave Analysis · Market Internals · Market Outlook · Swing ChartsNo Comments
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