The Explorer is in the shop today so I am home in a very peaceful setting. I even turned the TV off. I can’t believe how quiet it can get around here.
Gannalyst has a number of different swing charting methods available. I like to use the “Gann x Bar Swing Chart” option which turns the swing when the designated number of bars change direction.
From the Gannalyst website: X bar Swing Charts are similar to standard swing charts in that they are a rising and falling line indicator ( hence Trend Line Indicator ) displaying the essence of market movement with the time factor removed. The difference lies in the fact that the determining factor for a swing to occur is the market MUST move x number of bars in the opposite direction consecutively for a swing to occur.
Analysis of the chart shows that the longest down swing was the recent test of 149 points in seven days. The swings consolidated within that range and broke out for a 147 point run. Unless this swing high is exceed quickly then a good case can be made for a correction starting as the ninety day cycle completes.
The second way I view swing charts is with a two bar change criteria. This method excludes one day counter trends and requires a second confirmation day to change the swing in either direction. One can set this to any number in Gannalyst but I have found numbers beyond 3 not useful. The number to use should be based on the time frame of analysis.
This chart shows the recent swing up greater than the 149 point drop in mid-May. This move needs to continue to match the largest upswing of 291 points in 16 days or the chart will show momentum fading.
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Tags: How To Use Market Cycles · Swing Charts · Value Line Arithmetic Index (VLE)10 Comments
Adam Hewison over at market club took a relatively simple look at recent cycles on the S&P. Simply eye-balling the weekly chart, he determined an average 17 week cycle between low points. I’m curious to know if you have used the Gannalyst to explore patterns in the weekly charts and found any insights. Interesting stuff – although I have no idea how to make money off it. Cheers
Willy – No, have never used the swing charts to look for cycles. But that sounds like a good idea. Thanks.
For what’s it worth in case anyone cares: I still got no SELL signal from the indicator I mentioned yesterday.
Libby, what do you got going. I have been watching FSLR and forgot about CSIQ, and TSL .. checked them out today and they are rocketing. Not good time for me to get long .. sold 3 weeks early I guess. Waiting for my market SELL signal to play short side. Started nibbling on financial short ETFs, but might burn my toes if I am wrong. Today XLF did well relative to maket so I am little in red now.
Ray – We all want the market to stop. It has been 90 days and there are plenty of reasons to stop. But I see no chart where the Nasdaq or the ValueLine Arithmetic are weak. If the market continues up into day 135 then I think you can short and make money.
Ray, this is just the psychological drama I was saying when I gave the Nascar(sorry Andy) scenerio. I myself think gold goes higher how much more…Yeeekkk its getting close, I think the whole drama to all of this may not end till July now…thats 120 days, we do fall before that though and then we bounce back, I am currently in CPSL, OCNF(not happy with this one!) GMGMQ, HBAN, ENER, STP, SYMX, BX, GE, CBAK, PPHM I have alot on this move and maybe I can take a day or two off. ha ha..oh I am selling GLD probably today. But will buy back in later. Payrolls will weakin,,, do not jump into the fire Ray, relax. its Friday, profits might be a few days away, turn on 9-10, but this could be the 5th wave of A up….or we have started the 1st wave of 3 of A, thats how interesting its getting. if we break 1055 on s/p that is what where in. If you look at a 5yr weekly chart with you Mac D (Hist + 2 lines) settings of 13,21,8 (all fib #) you will see that this pattern shows we have a wide open upside on the weekly and the momentum is pushing on the “0″ if we cross over we go much higher in my opinion. 3 year weekly the same, daily is turning up again, 1yr, turning up, remember this is a driving force, every turn gets tighter, we have to get gas soon, be careful you can get run over in the pits…LOL, Keep your toes out of the fire. The Bulls are having Bears for lunch right now….and it could get worse!. Damn I need a better seat belt….ouch….
Libby – I like Nascar. Feel free to use Nascar in any one of your posts.
Thanks Libby. I will check it out your MACD numbers out today.
This is what I got: for $SPX:
TUrn Date#1: June9-10 possible top .. high should not exceed 968
Turn Date #2: July 9-10 … I am guessing bottom for right shoulder. low 800
I see island reversal in $USD, that could spell bad for stocks for short term.
… and GOLD, and commodities.
Ray,Andy, today was interesting, but the bears did not get their wish, it was short lived, but was it? I truely believe that we have one last push up, that consolidation move that everyone is looking for…I think? anyway I like your #’s alot, stick with them, your turn dates are on with mine, I think we have been in a subminute wave 4 in the 5th wave of 5 up of A, but what if this is the big Kahooona..and this was Wave C of wave 2 and we are about to start the big drop…….. Now I might have touched on this before, but what if we finished wave 1 or A down onNov 17th, you see Andy had that Nailed if I remember right as a bottom on his Gann charts, then we did an A up that finished on 1-5-09, then we fell into Wave B Of 2 bottomed on 3-2-09 (remember bear market B waves go south just the opposite of B waves in Bull markets go north….) OK so could this be wave C of 2 Of wave A??? if it is we have to go to 38.2% of Wave 1 down, that takes us to 1055 on s/p do you see what I see…so even though we need a correction we still have to finish up to 1055, so that takes me to this C wave up..will it be larger or could it go higher, I think so, but we retrace almost the whole wave down first, 61.8% is what most C waves retrace and that would really take us to 1250 area, so is this just wave 1 up of a 5 wave C? That is the question. but we just need to finish this and deal with the drop that is due anytime soon, but that is another psychological problem that I have with this wave, it doesn’t want to fall? so could we have done 1up, A down, and we are still in B of a bull-bear market rally, and have C yet to fall of 2 and then in two weeks or so, (my mac D still says we are going up) we start a nice 3,4,and then final 5 of C and 2 is completed sometime in 2010???? My mind it’s on overload, I am on a few days vacation, so I will catch ya on Sun.nite. I am going camping. Everyone have a great wkend.