Price Time Volume Investing

Comparing Intermediate Term Moves

This weekend I pointed out the similarities of the 1937-38 market with the 2007-09 market.  These charts show a more detailed look of the 1938 bounce and the current market posture.  Both markets dropped approximately 50% from the high.  The current Nasdaq Composite bear market lasted 71 weeks while the drop in 1938 was only 55 weeks in duration.  From the low point forward, the similarities grow.  There was was attempted low at 18 weeks from the true low on the Dow and 16 weeks on the Nasdaq.  This was followed by 17 weeks of rally on the Dow.  The current move on the Nasdaq required 13 weeks to the high, but there is no guarantee at this point the the upside is complete in the short term.   The Dow paused/corrected 13% in nine weeks from the mid-move high. Assuming the short term high is in on the Nasdaq, the chart shows a the price action corresponding to the Dow move in 1938.

Related Posts

• Low Volume Gains Today (October 19, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 18Oct09 (October 18, 2009)
• Reminiscing – 1938 Guesses That Were (October 16, 2009)
• Nasdaq Summation Index Pointing Down (October 15, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 10Oct09 (October 10, 2009)

Tags:   DJIA-Dow Crash 1929-1942 · Nasdaq Charts (IXIC)3 Comments