The swing chart of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows an interesting setup. Note that the Dow in 1938 dropped 13% within the total 63% move up. Assuming a short term high was made at the 1×1 angle in the chart below, a 13% drop into the end of June would take price to a natural trend change level at the 1×2 angle.
The Nasdaq Advance minus Decline ten day moving average is back into oversold position. Weakness into the end of the month would put this metric and the McClellan Oscillators discussed yesterday into very oversold territory.
Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com
Back from a painful Vacation, Hiked the Smokies till my legs fell off and enjoyed the tubing, but I had a blast. I see that you have a wonderful chart up, and on fast $ they had a good one up too, MON, Monsanto…great channel on it. but I like what you have Andrew, looks great. Have a great evening.
Hey you changed the site a bit, how do I get my Pyramid picture under my name…?????
Hey Libby – Sounds like a great vacation. Glad you had fun. As for the site, yeah I upgraded the theme a bit. I don’t see your Pyramid but maybe I am not looking at the right place. Or maybe only you can see it because it is yours.
Hi guys, For what it is worth all my SELL indicators triggered yesterday. We might get a RSH (right shoulder) to form for $SPX/$COMPQ, meaning we might have end of month rally or maybe rally goinbg to July 7th taking $SPX to ~930. My current target is 810 for $SPX around end of July. Will get $compq #s later. I need to look for more turn dates and/or confirm ones I already have once I get some free time. I think I am seeing distribution patterns everywhere I look.
The RSH bottom that everyone expects now will get at least a bounce .. but will it be like the July 2008 bottom that Cramer called? .. I am hearing of 2 contending EW counts .. one having the bear market over and another expecting a major leg down yet to come. I am tilting to latter but have very open minded and trying to stay alert to my blind side. Libby let me know your thoughts here. Thx
bests,
Ray
Ray – Thanks for the input. Good stuff. My guess is that it is a correction of around 30 days.
Oh yeah, and one positive (or negative) I see is there is too much bearishness out there .. or have I been around too many bears lately? … but it seems most of the “trading” public expects the market to tank. Would it comply? ;; maybe that DOW 11,000 ($SPX 1200) by 1st quarter 2010 will come true.