It is very difficult for me to be negative on this market in spite of a 180 day bull surge. Except for 30 days in June where price moved back to the intersection of the 1×2 descending and 2×1 ascending angles, the ValueLine Arithmetic Index (VLE) has moved up without rest.
The trading day Square of 90 I have posted previously shows price moving up about 8 points per day since the March low. Note that the 1/4 time lines have affected trends since the low. The 1/2 time lines have cause a stronger change in trend. The 135 trading day line will hit next week. If the 180 calendar day cycle is going to change this trend it will need to happen next week or I will assume price will climb for another 30-90 calendar days.
The SP500 (SPX) calendar day Square of 90 looks similar to the VLE.
As I said on the VLE Square of 90 chart, next week looks like the last chance the market has of rolling over based on cycles. The SPX Gann Fan of the 2007-2009 range show price above the 1×1 angle at at the 3/8 time cycle. The two previous 1/8 time cycles have changed the direction of price so it would not surprise me to see the uptrend end (at least for a short period of time) this upcoming week.
The last chart I will show this weekend is the range of the 2008 drop. This drop began in May 2008 with the beginning as the top of the initial bounce from the chart above. Price here is hitting a 50% retrace of that steep leg down.
In summary, the charts look strong but price has been moving up for a few days beyond 180 from the March low. There are several time and price cycles hitting this upcoming week. If price is to be influenced by the 180 day cycle, it will need to top out this week.
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Tags: Gann Square · Market Outlook · Value Line Arithmetic Index (VLE)No Comments
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