The swing chart of the yield of the 30 Year Treasury bond has broken the recent swing low from September and looks to have completed the bounce up since 2008.
The 10 Year Treasury yield looks similar. The low of the 30 year was 2.52 last December while the 10 year dropped to 2.04 percent. A test of these levels over the next six to eighteen months would not surprise me.
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Tags: Bonds · Swing Charts4 Comments
Andy, Do you ever do any VIX analysis? I plotted it on weekly chart with 233 week MA and that line has had many significance in past. For example going through it decisvely early 2003 confirmed new bull market. So far this time around it has been acting as suppot still and VIX bounced off it twice so far since 2008. Just another indicator telling me not to trust the bull calling, at least not just yet.
Ray – I don’t look at the VIX anymore. A couple years I watched it but found it wasn’t useful for me.
So yields down, bonds up, and the market? down?
There must be correction soon, but many un-expected things happened in the last months…
Do you see the same on TLT?
Cris – Bonds are signaling deflation. Nothing in the fundamentals have shown any reason to believe earnings of corporations will increase in conflict with bonds. The TLT is moving opposite to yields but in the same magnitude.