Volume was weak during the bounce over the last five days. I don’t see any buyers moving the market up as much as the lack of sellers are giving price no reason to drop.
The weekly volume was lower than the previous three weeks and the 4.5% gain appears without real conviction. The 1×1 descending angle is ready to provide a reason for sellers to become involved.
The monthly chart does show the 12 month moving average turning up but a test of this line is expected at some point.
The 10 year treasury bond had a big bounce from a test of the 2003 low. Note that yields can rise back to the 1×1 descending angle and not exceed the high from this summer. The trend in bonds could be changing but this week’s action does not signal anything but support from the 2003 low. At some point the yields will become attractive to the buyers again. My guess is that is below the 3.8% level.
The US Dollar is at a point where it could either bounce or almost certainly test the 2008 low. A bounce back to the 1×2 angle near $84 will not be unexpected. A move below the current support angle (1×2) would indicate a test of $70-72ish.
The boys and I are in the mountains this weekend. Libby and Ray can hold down the fort.
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Tags: Bonds · Nasdaq Charts (IXIC) · US Dollar (USD)No Comments
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