Last June I posted a guess for the Nasdaq based on the 1938 Dow Jones Industrials chart. I saw some other sites linking to this chart so I figured I should do some analysis and determine how my guess turned out.
The DJIA drop from an intermediate high was 13% in nine weeks. The correction this summer was only 8% in four weeks. The DJIA moved up for 32 weeks following the first leg of the bear market. The current Nasdaq market has moved up 32 weeks from the March low. All in all, a pretty good guess in June. If the market tops next week then I will really get a swelled ego…
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Tags: DJIA-Dow Crash 1929-1942 · Nasdaq Charts (IXIC)4 Comments
Andy, I think your guess will turn out good. I see too much deterioration in growth stocks and money moving into other sectors. Keep an eye on Biotechs and Staples. Energy sector getting some action too.
Andy, great analysis. But I don’t get it why you guess the top on next week?
Derek – I am not really guessing. The DJIA in 1938 made a 63% move in 32 weeks. The Nasdaq will hit 32 weeks off the March low next week. There is nothing new under the sun.
Hi Andy,
$BPCOMPQ and $NAA50 will soon confirm whether this qqqq put in a swing high this week. Don’t let your ego swell too much !