Not much is new happening with the indices so I want to look at the US Dollar and Ten Year Bond yield this week.
The 1992-2001 bull market cycle in the US Dollar has provided a usable cycle in the following correction. The 1/4 line prompt a selloff while the 1/2 cycle put in a top. The 3/4 line put in a bottom while the 7/8 line (not shown) put in a top. The 100% cycle time is next May which could put in a long term low for the US Dollar. (That is just a guess.)
The angles of the bear market show there is several points of upside to the 1×2 while the USD remains in a downtrend.
The short term US Dollar shows a $5 move potential to the $80 mid-point level. I am not saying the US Dollar will rally this much. I only see it as possibility for a rally that keeps the trend down.
US Treasury yields bounced last week but do not look ready to break the long term bear market in yields.
A short term yield of near 4.09 looks to be the point to consider the possibility of yields changing the long term downtrend to up.
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Tags: Bonds · US Dollar (USD)2 Comments
Hey Andy,
This is my first time commenting–thank you for all the valuable insight you’ve offered through your site for the last year or so since I’ve been a reader.
Your recent post pushed me to comment….on the Yen as it fluctuates in comparison to the USD, as well as the general markets. I will refer to FXY for this comparison: Over the last year both the yen and US markets have risen. However, this wasn’t always the case–in October 08, the markets dropped significantly as the Yen spiked. I don’t recall your use of the Yen as an indicator, but I think this reallocation means something, although I’m not quite sure what it’s eluding to. I hope you can shed some light on this topic. Either way, I’ll keep reading.
Ernie
Hi Andy – just wondering if you are updating this site or if you are a subscription only blog now. thanks