Price Time Volume Investing

The range from October 2007 to March 2008 was significant. The high was the high of the long term bull market and the low was the financial crisis Bear Stearns blow up. This time cycle ends next Friday. The question is what happens next? Let look to see…

The SP500 Index made five waves from the October high to the March low. My guess has been that we have been in an a-b-c correction the will eventually move down into October. The question now is how high do we go before starting back down again?

In recent years the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index made a significant higher high above the 2000 bear market top. Price has been correcting quickly on the monthly chart and is below the 4:1 descending Gann angle. To reach the 1:2 ascending Gann angle (where the bear market ended in 2003) price has a long way to fall.

The CRB Index divided by the 20 year bond index (TLT) is a good gauge for current and future inflation. Some interesting range square relationships of price and time have development over the past several years. The low point was in 2003 which lines up well with the end of the bear market deflation that started in 2000.

The Gann Fan of the 2002-2007 range continues to provide support at the 1:2 angle. If price closes below this angle then there is a lot of downside ahead. But this is a natural place to move up if price has a mind to go that way.

The five year cycle of the SPX has provided some good trading points from 2002 and 2003. Another inflection point from August 2003 is upon us.

Discussion of the Ten Year Treasury yield with respect to price and time analysis. Currently, the yield (inverse price) is well below a 50% retrace with respect to the 1990-2003 move.

The one point per angle angle and it’s multiples have been significant since last fall. Price needs to get through this angle and remain above on a pullback before it can move to the higher angles.

Record monthly volume on the SP500 Index (SPX) and the SP100 Index (OEX) during July produced a very bullish bar.

The SP500 Index (SPX) looks to have some more room to fall before hitting the 1:2 Gann fan angle around 1170ish.

Gann Fan relationships from the 1982-2008 Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The Gann Square of 52 measures relative market movements from one year to the next. This post discusses the square of 52 and how it is used by PTV-Investing.com.

Using Gannalyst and Yahoo historical data I created a couple charts of the DOW (INDU) going back to 1942. It may be interesting to go back further but Yahoo only provides data to 1928 which misses the low before the 1929 bubble.

The ValueLine Arithmetic Index (VLE) continues to look good in the long term. Price has not broken through the top of the first five wave set from 2002-2005.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) was up on volume today while the SP500 Index (SPX) was down big volume. I believe more downside is possibly to SPX 1160 and could happen quickly.

The Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) made a 720 degree move from March to June (two complete 360 degree cycles). Price has retraced all but 90 degrees of this move.

The TRAN re-tested the 1:1 descending Gann Angle and looks to be in good shape long term. Follow through is the key, as always.