Price Time Volume Investing

I’ve been reading the debates between the deflation camp and the inflation camp for several years now. They all have a great argument. I tend to ignore the argument and look at the charts. Obvious deflationary pressures since the mid-1980s are difficult to ignore. Continue reading

Prices are dropping rapidly showing no hints of future inflation. Continue reading

This post is an update of the long term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average I posted in July. Continue reading

Reader Kurt asked about a comparison of the 2000-2002 bear market to the current market environment. I looked at this a few different ways and decided the best way to do it is to compare the 2000 bear market at 12 months to the current drop after one year. Continue reading

Long term charts of the VLE and SPX show possible support to market. Continue reading

Price of the SP500 Index (SPX) touched the 1×4 Gann angle today and bounced. I am watching a retest of this level closely for a possible low. If price breaks through this angle then the 900ish level is one to watch. Continue reading

The VLE slightly undercut the high of the first 5 wave set off the 2002 low. Continue reading

A dynamic chart (updated weekly) of the waves and cycles in the SP500 (SPX) that I’ve been watching for a number of years. Continue reading

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN) drops over 8% today and 12% for the week. This is the first signal of the recession that the economist have promised us. Continue reading

The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) has retraced 50% of the 2000-2008 move. The correction can quickly and a bounce could come. But the chart does not look strong in the intermediate term. Continue reading

So far the markets are holding up. But all it will take to start the cascade is the failure of a couple banks. Continue reading

The 1987-2000 range of the SPX shows the 50% end retrace line about 20% below today’s close at 883. This will be a retest of the 2002 lows. Continue reading

Here is an oddity - the charts of regional banks are really looking strong. In looking at my industry charts I was surprised to see such relative strength in the banks. Continue reading

As an extension of my post this morning, here is where the SP500 Index (SPX) could end up in a crash in the 25-30% range. Continue reading

Jim Cramer did some analysis of individual stocks within the Dow Jones Industrial Average and sees the Dow at 8378 when the downside is complete. He is not making exact technical call on this number, but only a composite guess based on estimates of individual prices within the DOW. I decided to look at my charts and see if this level is realistic. Continue reading

The Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) shows no signs of a global recession with price well above the 1:1 descending Gann angle (diagonal). Continue reading

The Value Line Arithmetic (VLE) is my main index to watch the total market. The intermediate term range from 2007-2008 shows the 1:2 angle as resistance. Today price bounced off that line again. Continue reading

I have mention here that the fact that the smallcaps were holding up well was a sign that these businesses were not having trouble receiving loans. Small companies do not have large cash reserves and need to finance growth. Continue reading

Chapter IX, around page 115, in my copy of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LeFevre is a good place to read about what happened in the past week or so. I recommend this book to anyone interested in trading or in the financial history of the USA. Continue reading

Price of the VLE is above the July low and at the 7/8 retrace level of the 2007-2008 range. This suggests to me that the total market remains healthy and the financials are causing all of the problems. Continue reading