Price Time Volume Investing

Cheer up. Your losses can’t be as big as Uncle Warren’s.

Post Modified: November 19th, 2008 at 10:58 pm

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The ten year bond yield is at levels from the early 1960s.  Price essentially followed the slope down that it followed up from the sixties into the early 1980s.  Yield bottomed in 2003 and is near that level today.  I read the gurus squawking all the time about inflation.  But the world continues to buy US bonds below a 5% yield.  They also tell me about the flight to safety one day - while the next day tell me how the whole financial system is going down the drain.  Kinda tough to have safety without a financial system - eh?  Gurus crack me up.

The move from 1981 to 2003 has a 25% time cycle coming up next month.  Even if the current low yield is all about a safe place to store wealth, the bull market from 2002-2007 only increased yield  to around 5.3% at its peak.  The near collaspe of the US financial system only took yields down to the level of a normal recession in 2002.  I do believe the short term moves are related to current financial instability.  But the long term charts show that the deleverage activity has only moved bonds down to 2002 levels.

Tags:   Bonds · Financials · Inflation-Deflation4 Comments

Price reversed to the upside on volume today.  I am still waiting for price to take out the October 14th high before I get interested again.

The market is now oversold.

Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com

Tags:   Accumulation Day · Advance-Decline · Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P500)1 Comment