Price Time Volume Investing

The cycle on my roadmap hit this week and I assume a low will be made within a few days next week. It is possible the low is in now, but a gap down on Monday will not worry me if price recovers quickly. A continuation of last week’s price action would invalidate my call on this cycle turn. Continue reading

The 10 day moving average of advance-decline lines are as oversold as I have seen them. Continue reading

Just a quick note on cycle turns. Usually, price changes directions during a cycle turn. Occasionally, price will accelerate to the downside. It appears to me that the government has the opportunity to restore the system. But this is the same President, Congress, SEC, Fed, and Treasury who have made idiotic move after idiotic move in the past year. Please don’t get long just because it appears to be a cycle turn. Continue reading

This market will turn when it wants to turn - or when it is time to turn. But the VIX and Put/Call ratios are in position that rallies have happened from in the past. Continue reading

The bank panic of 1907 is very similar to the current bank crisis. The drop started around Jan-07 and ended at the beginning of Nov-07 which is about 10 months. Tough to tell were we are in the current drop in relations to this chart though. Continue reading

The SP500 Index (SPX) is nearing the 50% price retrace level and 50% of the time cycle from 1982-2000. The 1×4 Gann angle or the 50% price retrace could provide support. Continue reading

I’ve been reading the debates between the deflation camp and the inflation camp for several years now. They all have a great argument. I tend to ignore the argument and look at the charts. Obvious deflationary pressures since the mid-1980s are difficult to ignore. Continue reading

Prices are dropping rapidly showing no hints of future inflation. Continue reading

This post is an update of the long term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average I posted in July. Continue reading

Google (GOOG) and Apple Computer (AAPL) were leaders in the bull market from 2002-2007. It is a good idea to keep an eye on them as the leaders will turn before the general market. Continue reading

Reader Kurt asked about a comparison of the 2000-2002 bear market to the current market environment. I looked at this a few different ways and decided the best way to do it is to compare the 2000 bear market at 12 months to the current drop after one year. Continue reading

Long term charts of the VLE and SPX show possible support to market. Continue reading

Price of the SP500 Index (SPX) touched the 1×4 Gann angle today and bounced. I am watching a retest of this level closely for a possible low. If price breaks through this angle then the 900ish level is one to watch. Continue reading

StreetTracks Gold ETF (GLD) shows price has made two runs at the 1×1 Gann angle. The first try did break through but price quickly lost momentum. The second try also failed with last week showing a large outside range bar to the downside. Continue reading

October 11th shows up in many cycles and can be watched for a turn. Continue reading

The VLE slightly undercut the high of the first 5 wave set off the 2002 low. Continue reading

A dynamic chart (updated weekly) of the waves and cycles in the SP500 (SPX) that I’ve been watching for a number of years. Continue reading

The Energy ETF (XLE) is following the 8×1 Gann angle down but has hit the 1×2 ascending angle. This often provides support for a few weeks. A move back to the 1×1 descending is not out of the question. Continue reading

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN) drops over 8% today and 12% for the week. This is the first signal of the recession that the economist have promised us. Continue reading

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) has given up the all the gains of the breakout from the Oct05-Feb08 move. Price looks to me as if it will hit the upper right hand connect of the box which is at the Oct05 high. Continue reading

The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) has retraced 50% of the 2000-2008 move. The correction can quickly and a bounce could come. But the chart does not look strong in the intermediate term. Continue reading

So far the markets are holding up. But all it will take to start the cascade is the failure of a couple banks. Continue reading

Volume was lower today and price retraced 50% of yesterday’s move which is not bullish. The put/call and VIX is still up but I don’t think we have seen the low. Continue reading

The 1987-2000 range of the SPX shows the 50% end retrace line about 20% below today’s close at 883. This will be a retest of the 2002 lows. Continue reading

The VLE is testing the July low which could hold. But the odds are against it. Continue reading