Price Time Volume Investing

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The US Dollar and Bond yields look setup to rally in the short term.

The 145 plus index and industry charts have been updated for this week. I have had some computer issues and have lost my email MS Outlook capability so you will not receive an email this week.  I hope to have email restored by next week in some fashion. Your emails to me should continue to [...]

The ValueLine Arithmetic charts are surprisingly strong in the long term. The USD, bond yields, and banking index remain in strong downtrends.

The market is against resistance after a 60-70% move up from the March low.

The ValueLine Arithmetic (VLE) Square of 90 using trading days shows price 180 TD beyond the March low.  Interesting that the left shoulder of the head-and-shoulders formation occurred 45 days into the second 90 day cycle, the head at the 3/4 time line, and the shoulder finished at the 180 day mark.  A new high [...]

The ValueLine Arithmetic (VLE) swing chart shows a lower low and an attempt to make a new high.  I do not have a lot of confidence in the markets ability to take the VLE to a new high – but it is still possible. The 10 year US treasury bond continues down.  The recent bounce [...]

The SP500 index hit the 50/50 point and is in equilibrium – no advantage to either side. Dynamic Chart Market is back to the oversold level of the last selloff. It is options expiration week so weird things can happen in the short term. Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com

The Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1929-1942 has provided a near perfect Roadmap of the Nasdaq since 2000 (as perfect as things get in the markets).  Price bounced 63% from March to November 1938 just as it has bounced about 71% this year. 

Volume on up days has been anemic throughout October and the Summation Index charts show the weakening breadth very clearly.

The Fidelity Housing Index has bounced above the 50% retrace of the 2000-2007 level but has resistance at the 2×1 angle.  Price cannot be considered bullish while below the 1×1 descending diagonal.

The time cycle of the 2007-2008 correction of Apple Computer (AAPL) completed as exceptional earnings were reported. It was either the earnings report or the fact that price needed to be somewhere as time squared out.

Link from Libby.

The US Dollar (USD) is approaching the 100% time cycle next spring and is below the 1992 low. A test of the 2008 low looks to be in the cards.

Volume continues to be weak on upside days.  The Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) should make a new short term high at the open tomorrow with the good earnings by Apple and others after the close.

I see everyone is excited about this great move back to “new highs” and ready to jump back in with both feet.  Well, not everyone.  Not you, of course.  But everyone else.  I put the recent market move into perspective.

The 1938 DJIA drop from an intermediate high was 13% in nine weeks. The correction this summer was only 8% in four weeks. The DJIA moved up for 32 weeks following the correction. The current Nasdaq market has moved up 32 weeks from the March low.

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is nearing 45 days beyond 180 days past the March low. Price is nearing five complete 360 degree cycles on the Squareroot Progression chart.

The Nasdaq Summation Index turned down at the beginning of October and the 10 day moving average remains below the 50dma.  If fact, with price significantly above the May level, the NASI has not risen.

The market appears to like the Intel Corporation (INTC) news and should be strong at the open.  Due to the length of the current market thrust without a pause, I am guessing this move with be a blow off top.  The 1×2 angle of the long term range is a place to watch for a high.

The price of Natural Gas Continuous Contract NYMEX has moved up to the 25% price line and is nearing the 1×8 angle which should be resistance.  After the fast move by price, I expect a pullback caused by the angles above. 

The price of Gold made a new all time high last week.  A quick guess would put near 1200 as a level to watch if price returns to the 1×1 angle of the 1999-2008 range. A look at the retrace during 2008 shows price would move about 50% of the correction higher to near 1200. 

Volume was weak during the bounce over the last five days.  I don’t see any buyers moving the market up as much as the lack of sellers are giving price no reason to drop.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) price is back to the 4×1 descending angle of the 1982-2007 range.  This level has stopped price throughout the bear market.

The PowerShares ValueLine Timeliness Select Portfolio (PIV) tracks those stocks rated as the highest for potential price appreciation by ValueLine.  Price of these “best” fundamental stocks have not been strong during the move up since March. 

The Square of 52 on the Nasdaq 100  is approaching 104 weeks beyond the 2007 top.  Price has moved back to 50% of the range of the first 52 weeks.  This cycle is one to watch since a correction is eventually going to occur.

The swing chart of the yield of the 30 Year Treasury bond has broken the recent swing low from September and looks to have completed the bounce up since 2008.

The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator 10 day moving average is oversold and setup for a bounce.  There have been three lower highs since March indicating a decline of momentum over time.

Yesterday I showed the SPX in daily, weekly, and monthly charts.  Today I want to look at some ranges of the ValueLine Arithmetic Index (VLE).

The recent top of the monthly chart is at the mid-range of the 2002-2007 bull market.  I noted before that it was odd that the market topped without hitting any significant angles.