Price Time Volume Investing

The charts of these major indices have not moved beyond the 2000-2002 bear market low. The SPX must contain more financial stocks that are heavily weighted as compared to the other indices. Continue reading

The SPX had a large range outside day (LROD to Jeff Cooper followers) on volume. Price broke the October 10th low for a short period of time and then the volume buyers came in. From here we need one or more follow through days. We also need break the October 14th high and remain up there beyond the 12th day of the rally. Continue reading

The Gann fans of the DOW chart since 1982 are interesting. Setting the 1×1 angle at the top of the 2000 high provided the 2002 low at the 1×2 angle. Price tends to move in doubles and halves of a significant slope. Continue reading

The equity markets are reacting to the cycle turn of October 10. So far, no strength is evident to support significant buying. Continue reading

A comparison I have been looking at recently is the DOW crash of 1929 versus the Nasdaq Composite crash of 2000. There are a lot of similarities that are lost when comparing the DOW to the SP500. Continue reading

I posted a crash scenario about a month ago and I’ve updated the charts here. The futures are usually a bad indicator of the day. The volume is low and panics are easy. Also, the big boyz and run a misdirection play for little money before the market opens. But still, a limit down futures open isn’t something that happens very often and should be taken seriously. Continue reading

The SP500 Index tested the October 10 low again and reversed back up on higher volume today. This action is an accumulations day. Unfortunately, the Nasdaq ended the day about 0.7% lower on higher volume which is distribution. The Dow moved similar to the SPX in an accumulation day. Continue reading

The market is oversold. The time cycle turned last week. The key from this point is the price action at the point the internals become over bought again. At this point I am neither bullish or bearish. The trend for the remainder of the year will be obvious over the next few weeks. Continue reading

Today’s big move up was nice but I wasn’t impressed with the range. We are only back where we were last Wednesday. Wide range days are common lately. Now we must watch for an IBD style follow through day. Continue reading

Just a quick note on cycle turns. Usually, price changes directions during a cycle turn. Occasionally, price will accelerate to the downside. It appears to me that the government has the opportunity to restore the system. But this is the same President, Congress, SEC, Fed, and Treasury who have made idiotic move after idiotic move in the past year. Please don’t get long just because it appears to be a cycle turn. Continue reading

The bank panic of 1907 is very similar to the current bank crisis. The drop started around Jan-07 and ended at the beginning of Nov-07 which is about 10 months. Tough to tell were we are in the current drop in relations to this chart though. Continue reading

This post is an update of the long term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average I posted in July. Continue reading

Reader Kurt asked about a comparison of the 2000-2002 bear market to the current market environment. I looked at this a few different ways and decided the best way to do it is to compare the 2000 bear market at 12 months to the current drop after one year. Continue reading

Jim Cramer did some analysis of individual stocks within the Dow Jones Industrial Average and sees the Dow at 8378 when the downside is complete. He is not making exact technical call on this number, but only a composite guess based on estimates of individual prices within the DOW. I decided to look at my charts and see if this level is realistic. Continue reading

There is not much to discuss this weekend. The financial system was saved by the US government. Paulson let it go all the way to the edge so he would be able to scare congress into acting. It is still unclear if congress is smart enough to do the right thing, but Paulson knows what he is doing. Continue reading

Discussion of why I believe the October low will be “the” low before a new five wave bull market. While the SP500 Index (SPX) e-wave charts do little to support this guess, the total market is in much better shape. Continue reading

Weekly recap of the stock markets with end of week summary analysis. Continue reading

Gann Fan relationships from the 1982-2008 Dow Jones Industrial Average. Continue reading

The Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ), SP500 Index (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU), and Smallcap 600 (SML) all finished at highs on high volume. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) finished at a high but about flat - which is not bad considering earnings misses. The SPX swing chart is very constructive. Continue reading

Using Gannalyst and Yahoo historical data I created a couple charts of the DOW (INDU) going back to 1942. It may be interesting to go back further but Yahoo only provides data to 1928 which misses the low before the 1929 bubble. Continue reading