Price Time Volume Investing

A comparison of the geometric movements of the major US markets.

A look at the SPXEW, SML, and OEX indices which are in slightly better shape than the SP500 index.

The SP600 Small Cap Index has had two strong weeks with high volume this week. Price is consolidating around the 10 week moving average. Oil dropped almost 14% for the week and does not show and signs of possible strength. Price could turn at any time but I don’t expect it before the 1×8 Gann angle near $30.

The SPX bounced off the 50 day moving average on low volume today. Price did not exceed the high or low from yesterday - making this an inside day.

Volume was up on a second down day on the major indices. But as bad as the press coverage of the last two days are, the actual chart looks in good shape. Tomorrow is day three and an afternoon reversal back up is a possibility.

There was nothing to get excited about today. Growth stocks did well. Indices were all up. But volume was the lowest in a long time.

Even though price has retraced over one half of the move off the Oct 10 low, the number of stocks hitting a new 52 week low was very low today. At this point I see a positive consolidation off the low.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN) drops over 8% today and 12% for the week. This is the first signal of the recession that the economist have promised us.

So far the markets are holding up. But all it will take to start the cascade is the failure of a couple banks.

I got home last night and looked through the charts. There really isn’t anything to discuss that hasn’t been covered. We are waiting for congress to decide what to do.

I have mention here that the fact that the smallcaps were holding up well was a sign that these businesses were not having trouble receiving loans. Small companies do not have large cash reserves and need to finance growth.

The smaller growth companies cannot function in a recession or a weak credit environment. They do not have the resources to sustain a downturn with large damage. Unless this chart move below the August low I am long term bullish.

The Russell 2000 Index is moving up strong off the July low. Price started up the 8:1 Gann angle and have moved to the 4:1 angle. Price is now at the 50% price retrace which is a natural place for a pause.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed on higher volume today while the SP500 Index (SPX) rose on lower volume - which maybe be due to more big cap energy issues in the SP500 than on the Nasdaq.

The Nasdaq and the Semiconductor Holders were the best indices on the day. The Smallcaps held up well on lower volume. The big selling was in the SP500 Index.

Volume was off a little today but I would not call it light. Price of the SP500 Index (SPX) finally moved above the swing high but did not close above this point. Price did finish at the highest close of the swing though. I’m still not super excited because we are nearing overbought and only marginally higher than we were 11 days ago.

The Smallcap 600 Index (SML) had the best week of all stock indices. It has been up four straight weeks on good volume. Last week was basically a lower volume consolidation week for the other indices. The SP500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite Index (COMPQ) both finished up but about where they started the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) finished slightly down.

The NDX is in a strong position while the RUT has formed an upside down cup-with-handle which is not bullish at all.

Weekly recap of the stock markets with end of week summary analysis.

Volume was off on the SPX, NDX, INDU, OEX, and RUT today. The market is weak and could go as low as 1160ish on my charts. SPX 1153 is 720 degrees (two full 360 degree cycles) down from the May high. Of course, it could bounce from any point. But I am getting tired of writing that.

Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com