Price Time Volume Investing

Several VLE charts show the market is a moderately bullish position.

A comparison of the geometric movements of the major US markets.

It has been a while since I updated the About page and decided it was time to discuss the intent of this site.

Using my Elliott Wave count for the Value Line Arithmetic Index (VLE), (which is debated by some), I see 248 days to complete the first 5 waves. I then see around 248 days to complete an A-B-C correction and the next 5 waves down. I’ve noticed this time line on a number of occasions when counting waves. Keep in mind that the current move upward may only be part of wave 5 down.

The market looks to be in the last leg of this current correction.

The market internals show a possible rally setup, while the long term Elliott wave analysis shows a potential for more significant downside. The suggested strategy is to not guess and wait for the market to show it’s hand before allocating cash.

The Value Line Arithmetic (VLE) range of 2002-2007 shows some interesting angles within the Gann fan. Price does not look stable at this point and I would not be surprised to see it move to the 1×8 angle which is about 18% below yesterday’s close.

The Value Line Arithmetic (VLE) Index bottomed last week, similar to the SPXEW. Price has bounced well above the 8×1 Gann angle. Today was only the fifth day of the rally and I need to watch this into next week.

The first eight wave octet lasted 158 from the 2002 low. Next week is 158 weeks from the end of the first octet. A turn up here would be right on time.

The recent move from October 10th has had two test stabs down. Price is in a position where it must move higher now or risk downside below the recent low.

Long term charts of the VLE and SPX show possible support to market.

The VLE slightly undercut the high of the first 5 wave set off the 2002 low.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN) drops over 8% today and 12% for the week. This is the first signal of the recession that the economist have promised us.

The VLE is testing the July low which could hold. But the odds are against it.

A summary of current market action and a guess into future market actions.

I got home last night and looked through the charts. There really isn’t anything to discuss that hasn’t been covered. We are waiting for congress to decide what to do.

The Value Line Arithmetic (VLE) is my main index to watch the total market. The intermediate term range from 2007-2008 shows the 1:2 angle as resistance. Today price bounced off that line again.

Price of the VLE is above the July low and at the 7/8 retrace level of the 2007-2008 range. This suggests to me that the total market remains healthy and the financials are causing all of the problems.

Short term the market swing chart is not is great position. I continue to expect (or will not be surprised) by a move to SP500 Index (SPX) 1150. But the situation this fall looks much better. Using the Value Line Arithmetic Index (VLE) as the state of the total market we can see that price and time are in a favor.

I believe the VLE is the best long term chart I look at. The VLE is telling us that the average stock in the market is much stronger than it appears.