Price Time Volume Investing

The Nasdaq 100 had a low volume down day and is in the process of working off an overbought condition. Today was a minor distribution day.

I read today that the next couple weeks are very low volume affairs. I guess everyone is shopping at the back to school specials. It sure looks that way according to the Aeropostale Inc (ARO) long term chart.

Discussion of why I believe the October low will be “the” low before a new five wave bull market. While the SP500 Index (SPX) e-wave charts do little to support this guess, the total market is in much better shape.

Google (GOOG) is in position to move to 550-600.

Equity indices were up but on low volume. The big buyers (or sellers) appear to be waiting until August options expire. I guess they have them where they want them. Everything is below the Monday high.

The Russell 2000 Index is moving up strong off the July low. Price started up the 8:1 Gann angle and have moved to the 4:1 angle. Price is now at the 50% price retrace which is a natural place for a pause.

The NDX pulled back to the 1:1 ascending Gann angle which is expected. It is possible that the options houses will move price where ever is the most profitable in the next few days. I see short interest is down for the first month in many.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed on higher volume today while the SP500 Index (SPX) rose on lower volume - which maybe be due to more big cap energy issues in the SP500 than on the Nasdaq.

Price finally busted above the rally day six high with a strong outside day that finished at the high on Friday. Volume was off a little from Thursday but the weekly volume was well above average. Volume on the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) was about equal to Wednesday and Thursday’s volume. This is day 18 of the rally and the COMPQ looks very strong.

I have been following and commenting on the chart of Apple Computer (AAPL) for some time now. Back in May I thought it would end up at the near 125 this fall. Even though price bounced nicely off the 3/8 line on the big reversal day three weeks ago, volume analysis shows that there are few buyers on this current bounce.

The Nasdaq and the Semiconductor Holders were the best indices on the day. The Smallcaps held up well on lower volume. The big selling was in the SP500 Index.

Volume was off a little today but I would not call it light. Price of the SP500 Index (SPX) finally moved above the swing high but did not close above this point. Price did finish at the highest close of the swing though. I’m still not super excited because we are nearing overbought and only marginally higher than we were 11 days ago.

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) remains range bound after today. Price action was very positive and volume was good. The SP500 Index (SPX) swing chart action has price below the day six high - even after todays big move. I assume that the open will take out this high. But where they close them is more important than where they open them.

The interday charts look bad but the daily chart remains in position to move higher. Price needs to take out the recent highs with another continuation day and then blast higher before we become totally overbought. I don’t usually worry about moving averages but they do serve as resistance to price.

The Smallcap 600 Index (SML) had the best week of all stock indices. It has been up four straight weeks on good volume. Last week was basically a lower volume consolidation week for the other indices. The SP500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite Index (COMPQ) both finished up but about where they started the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) finished slightly down.

High volume distribution at the end of the day is not what we would like to see. The daily price bar remains above the low from yesterday. Ideally, I would like to see an accumulation day tomorrow on higher volume than today.

Record monthly volume on the SP500 Index (SPX) and the SP100 Index (OEX) during July produced a very bullish bar.